MLP Season 1 Post-Mortem – Where NML Was Right. Where NML Was Wrong.
Radio and TV personality, Colin Cowherd, has a reputation for being a little bit of a blowhard and hot take artist. There was a time when we were both fans of Cowherdâs work, even if you knew he probably didnât always stand behind all of his takes. One of Cowherdâs segments (we are not sure if he still does this) was âWhere Colin was right and where Colin was wrong.â People love pointing out when pundits are wrong, something we are not innocent of either, so we figured why not do our own version of right and wrong for NML, MLP style. The season 2 MLP Draft is coming up on July 12th, so this felt like the perfect time for some 20/20 hindsight.
Here is the first installment of âWhere NML was right and where NML was wrongâ for season 1 of MLP 2023. You can view our draft grades for Premier and Challenger to double check our work as we tried to hit the highlights!
Where NML Was Right
Seattle Pioneers
Everyone and their motherâs had Seattle as a contender after the season 1 draft. We gave them an A+ and that turned out to be correct as they won two titles and reached the semi-finals in the other. We thought Etta Wright was a steal as the last pick of the 2nd round and Tyler Loong a steal in the 4th round. Amazingly, we gave them an A+ grade and didnât think Meghan Dizon was nearly as good as she has turned out to be.
Las Vegas Night Owls
We put an incomplete/C+ grade on the Night Owls due to concerns about chemistry with their team. Chemistry aside, we had wondered what their draft achieved. It was a balanced team with Dekel Bar, Vivienne David, Lauren Stratman and Kyle Yates, but the upside was questionable to us. This group ended up struggling to get wins and 75% of the team was gone before the final event. Is the idea of Dekel Bar being the foundation of an MLP team better than the reality of Dekel Bar as the foundation of an MLP team in 2023?
RIP Frisco Clean Cause
Frisco had our second lowest draft grade in Premier, and they ended up being by far the worst team in Premier. An un-engaged Matt Wright is not a good Matt Wright to have, and the teams that waited on taking women struggled. That may be less of a problem in season 2 as there is more depth in the womenâs player pool after 7 months, but Lina/Yana were big culprits along with Zane/Matt being unable to sort it out.
Sam Querrey and the D.C. Pickleball Team
Sam Querrey has proven himself to be capable enough as a Challenger player. D.C. had some close, but no cigar, results in their first two events and then broke through with a semi-finals appearance in San Clemente. Although the D- draft grade may have been harsh, the fact is that Querrey still isnât close to being worthy of the #1 pick in Challenger. D.C. went the publicity route and somehow it is one they may not regret considering their overall place heading into season 2 isnât terrible. However, from a Premier in 2024 standpoint, the Querrey pick was still a major missed opportunity for a team that could be sitting close to the top of the overall standings had they drafted with only winning in mind.
Bay Area Breakers and Chicago Slice
The Slice and Breakers are two teams that drafted for upside and were rewarded for that in Challenger. We have Bay Area an A- and felt Ewa Radzikowska was a great selection despite how unknown she was. Susannah Barr being the veteran foundation for Connor Garnett and Emily Ackerman to grow was the perfect fit for Chi town. We gave the Slice a B on the draft grade, but we liked the potential that Ackerman and Garnett had to offer. Moreover, Ryler DeHeart ended up being a steady 4th round pick as a guy who had room to improve given his newness to the sport.
Atlanta Bouncers and Orlando Squeeze
Conversely to the Slice and Bay Area, the Bouncers and Squeeze were both teams that we saw with limited upside. Atlanta had a fantastic first event on the heels of a bunch of Dreambreaker wins, and Orlando made the playoffs in Mesa. Neither team got out of the group stage in the final two events as Orlando chose not to make any changes in season 1.
Miami Pickleball Club
It continues to be hilarious that Matt Manasse stills refers to himself as a pro pickleball player on social media. The closest he has come to being a legitimate touring professional player is by using his power as a General Manager to draft himself to the Miami Pickleball Club. We gave Miami an F grade and it appears the Miami ownership was not happy with Manasseâs self-belief/delusion. After going winless in the first event, albeit with some close losses, Manasse was dropped by Miami and seemingly his GM title stripped from him. Miami picked up Brendon Long and proceeded to make the semi-finals of the next two events in season 1. What a ride.
Where NML Was Wrong
Catherine Parenteau
We gave a B- grade to the Mad Drops for their overall draft, but we also called Catherine Parenteau the biggest reach of the draft. While the 20/20 hindsight evaluation shows this was a clear miss, we donât actually feel like we missed badly on this one. Catherine Parenteau has always been a strong player, but her results were trending the wrong direction by the end of 2022. We still think it was reasonable not to expect her jump in level by so many notches in 2023. She is a better player than she has ever been and thatâs not something we anticipated for a player that has been at it as long as Parenteau. At this point, Catherine Parenteau will be picked right around that #5 overall slot for season 2. We had thought the Mad Drops draft was salvaged by getting Thomas Wilson so late, but picking Parenteau at #5 ended up being right around where she should have gone. We should note that Julian Arnold looks like he could go in the first round for season 2 when we had also said he a also reach in the 3rd round at #29 overall.*
AJ Koller
Unlike the Catherine Parenteau evaluation, the AJ Koller evaluation is one we feel like we messed up big time. We had written in our draft grades that Frisco missed an opportunity to select a Dylan Frazer/AJ Koller combination if they were going to select back-to-back men. We gave the Hard Eights a B draft grade, but more so because we were unsure what the Mary Brascia/Lindsey Newman duo would provide. AJ Koller had a better final event in San Clemente but his overall play was erratic, which checks out considering his entire 2023 has been erratic.
The signs were there if you look harder at AJâs results for 2022. We wrongly attributed some of Kollerâs lack of success in 2022 to his partners, Thomas Wilson and Callie Smith. Callie Smith just isnât a top level mixed player, but Thomas Wilson is a guy who he should have been winning more with. AJ Koller had a couple of good results with Riley Newman and Collin Johns in 2022, and we projected that ceiling on Koller while ignoring his other results. It seems that Koller is a sporadic high ceiling, low floor left-side guy who will be one of the more interesting evaluations for season 2.
St. Louis Shock
St. Louis got our worst draft grade for Premier in season 1 with a C-. St. Louis ended up being a slightly below middling team, but that overperformed our initial expectations. This appeared to be an example of a team being greater than the sum of its parts. Their gender doubles teams were both strong and they had more Dreambreaker prowess than expected overall. They also ended up being one of the more enjoyable teams to watch as well in season 1.
Florida Smash Women as Elite
We expected the Jorja Johnson/Jessie Irvine partnership to be elite and they werenât able to put it together. It is possible Jorja Johnsonâs up and down game may not fit quite as well for small sample size games to 21 in MLP and Jessie Irvineâs personality wasnât the best fit for that either upon further reflection. Still, it feels like this team should have won more games together.
Pablo Tellez
We gave Bay Area our highest draft grade of the Challenger draft, an A- , but the biggest question we had was Pablo Tellez as a #1 guy. He had some higher end results in 2022, but he also had some rough losses, which led to us having questions as to what he was. Pablo proved to be the best player in Challenger for season 1 and he is the #1 lock to make the jump to Premier for season 2. Bay Area ended up with 2 Championships and 1 semi-finals appearance. Questions asked and answered by Pablo Tellez.
Brooklyn Aces and Texas Ranchers
We thought both these teams had done a solid job with their draft, and the only concern we had for Brooklyn was Greg Dowâs ability in mixed and singles as a right-sider by trade. Brooklynâs first round pick, Cierra Gaytan-Leach, was done after the first event due to her pregnancy that was unknown to Brooklyn at the time of the draft. This led to no flexibility on Brooklynâs end to decide what changes they wanted to make as Corrine Carrâs known pregnancy meant she had to be dropped after the 2nd event.
The Ranchers were a team built on veteran experience with Pat Smith, Steve Deakin and Lee Whitwell. We overestimated what experience and steadiness can do at the Challenger level in 2023. They had a bad first event and dropped Steve Deakin for Scott Doerner. Deakin may still be a Challenger player in the right situation, but it wasnât to be with this roster. After the 2nd event, they dropped Genie Erokhina for Tina Pisnik despite a playoff appearance. Ultimately, the foundation of Pat Smith and Lee Whitwell was not enough.
*Edited to add that not only is Julian Arnold a potential round 1 pick in season 2, but also that we said in our draft grades it was a reach to select him #29 overall in the third round.
Agree or disagree? Let us know in the comments below or email us at nmlpickleball@gmail.com. Follow us on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook too!
Love the format, and the ode to Colin.
Will there be a Season 2 Mock draft next week?
Always look forward to the posts, keep it up.
We will see what we can do! Thanks for reading, Joseph
I just read a rumor that NML is having a season 2 mock draft next week, any truth?
đ
Nice post-mortem, being right in MLP is a tough business unless you draft Ben Johns.
Haha weâll see. We are not holding anything yet but may get something up
Looking at the draft both the Hard 8’s and Frisco took two men first, and did poorly. The Mad Drops, Smash and Mashers took two women first, with the Mad Drops having the most success, but all three finishing in top 13 of all 24 teams. Everyone else took one women and one man in first two rounds with varying success. Interestingly, the top three overall teams in Premier took their second male player with their fourth pick.
The question is whether 1 draft is enough to say there is a right way to do things. Did Hard 8âs and Frisco have good strategy and just pick wrong players, or wrong strategy and wrong players?
Frisco could have drafted Dylan Frazier and Julian Arnold with their picks, which obviously would have changed their fortunes entirely.
So drafting two men is not necessarily a bad strategy, it’s drafting the wrong two men that’s a problem.
The only draft strategy that is 100% applicable all the time is to avoid hiring a bad GM
Agree you have to pick the right players, but it seems like last draft there was more depth on the men’s side so I think you got a better men’s player with your 4th pick.
Fourth round men: DJ, Yates, Collin Johns, Lange, Wilson, Tardio, Loong, Patriquin.
Fourth round women: Lina, Maggie Brascia, Lindsay Newman, Schneeman.
Some teams drafted for upside, some for established players. I tried to compare where players “ranked” in the MLP player standings for two events combined (Mesa and San Clemente, Daytona looked funky) and where they were drafted to look at value. It does not consider how the team did only the player’s ranking in the MLP player standings and their gender draft spot.
Best values (men, over achieved draft spot): Patriquin, Loong, Arnold, Daescu, Wilson, Tardio
Even values (men, achieved draft spot): Ignatowich, AJ, Lange, Ben. Rettenmaier, Staksrud
Worst values (men, under achieved draft spot): Zane, Devillier, JW
Best values (women, over achieved draft spot): Schneeman, Allyce Jones, Wright, Dizon
Even values (women, achieved draft spot): Parenteau, Simone, Lina, Newman, Tereschenko
Worst values (women, under achieved draft spot): David, Koop, Irvine, Bright
Schneeman and Patriquin as the lowest picks, had the best opportunity to be great values and they were. Higher picks like Zane and David that had some rough events had the greater opportunity to fall. Ben and Catherine were drafted high and performed the closest to their draft position.
Can’t wait for the next draft!
Oh boy, you’re risking lots of blowback from the amateur PB scouts everywhere by having the nerve to say JW underperformed his draft position. Jw is really really popular online with those who see the pro game through “narratives,” and not data.
You need to pick the right players. Thatâs a lot of what it comes down to
Nice recap. Have you posted an article of EXACTLY HOW the draft and all the team rearrangements will work? I’d love to see an in depth article explaining all the Details of how it will work. Love your stuff!
We have not posted an article on that. Weâll try to include that info somewhere
Thank you for posting. Congratulations to Corrine Carr for playing so well while being sooo pregnant. It was great watching her play. I think everyone learned a lot for the first MLP season, and it will only improve w/ every season in the future. Maybe, just maybe, this is the future format of pickleball.
A very positive comment for you, David!
I think I nullified the one positive with a new negative… Oops. đ Damnit, I’m trying though, I really am. đ
I enjoy all of NML pickleball posts in every way. You always have the best most concrete Information and I always look forward to reading what you have to say! You are ok when people disagree on your thoughts and predictions. Much appreciated!
On that note I want to say âI told you soâ on CP. We argued once about her being a top player which I believed and you did not in an earlier post this year.
She made a âmistakeâ at nationals and got a bad rap. Her name was posted all over social media namely by a pro or two, that at the time was asking other pros to band together seemingly wanting to destroy her reputation. Her name also came up on pickleball podcasts by other pros in direct competition with her saying how over rated she wasâŚ. Sorry NML I think you drank some of that kool-aide too.
I think she has proven the neigh-sayers wrong. She has risen above with nothing but grace, sportsmanship, and athleticism. Her top spot was always there and continues to just increase in strength! Look what she did for the Mad Drops
as one example.
Interesting so many pros have made this same âmistakeâ since this nationals incident and even beforehand. Some made by the same people that tried to take her down.
Thanks for the comment and yes we have been proven wrong on her. Clearly she is too good and whether her personality stuff is real or not, it is not mattering at all this year. We probably drank too much of the kool aid and she has just continued to play at a high level
I believe I argued you against her, not that she was bad but overrated. My bad!
IMO, you are on the same steroids that IMO, CP used this last winter to build up so much muscle. “She made a ‘mistake”… You have to be kidding me. This wasn’t a mistake! This was a calculated decision to dump her partner so she would have a better opportunity to win at the nationals. PERIOD. A decision that she has made numerous times in the past, I know one personally. That’s it, and she was so gutless that she had her manager do her dirty work. She’s a great player, but she has zero integrity and trustworthiness. And please name the pros that have done the same thing over and over. I am hoping that someday the players create a Player’s Union and this kind of unsportsmanlike conduct is not tolerated.
“a calculated decision to dump her partner so she would have a better opportunity” Obviously a lot of these decisions this year: Tyson taking the Sock MD opportunity, Julian playing with Riley for 2-3 tournaments. Pro players or their managers are focused on running their career as a business. CP may have done it excessively but long term commitments are done. Ignatowich on his show said he’d prefer to be flexible with partners in 2024.
Nothing wrong with being flexible, nothing wrong with having multiple partners. The only issue is that you keep your commitments, and that’s the problem everyone has (had?) with CP.
These days so many pros are getting agents that I imagine more and more partnerships are contracts rather than verbal agreements, so breaking the contract will result in lawsuits, and no player wants to lose the kind of money it takes to defend oneself in a lawsuit.
We might even have CP’s past poor behavior to thank for this? More players protecting themselves is a good thing, and will only increase the level of professionalism at the top.
Maybe Koop and Wright will be the official PPA Players’ lawyers. đ
Haha maybe
I’m very surprised that no one has mentioned this simple fact about season 1 of MLP 2023:
The top 4 finishers in both premier and challenger points were all teams that had one of the first 5 picks in their respective drafts.
(ATX being the exception in premier — they were 3rd pick and finished 6, behind the Mashers who picked 11th but benefitted from the late season trade for Mr Wright. In Challenger, of course, we all know how DC used their #1 pick…they finished 8th.)
For those who are curious, here’s the respective top 4 finishers & draft order:
Premier: Seattle Pioneers (2), LA Mad Drops (5), NJ 5s (1), NY Hustlers (4), Milw Mashers (11)
Challenger: Bay Breakers (5), Chi Slice (4), Dallas PBC (3), Utah BD (2), Miami PBC (11)
[I’m not 100% sure about the Challenger draft order since I couldn’t find the official list anywhere. Also interesting coincident that the 11th pick finished 5th in both…]
CP was ahead of her time in figuring out that PB was becoming a big business and players had to start maximizing opportunities. Now most players run their partnerships this way. Someone has to blaze trails, and CP took a lot of flack for being upfront and first. Now they embarrassingly dump partners on Instagram, and turn it into a story that lasts weeks. CP did her business quietly and graciously. Players on the cusp, who have up and down results are most susceptible to be acquired or let go unceremoniously. Lea will say she had a short term partnership with Allice. But she moved on when she felt she wasn’t maximizing her potential. The partnerhip rules of 5 years ago are over. Money changes everything.