MLP Daytona 2025 – 7 Takeaways – “Sample Size”
We have had a couple of very busy life weeks and didn’t come out with any takeaways after MLP Phoenix. The Phoenix event was interesting because the matches started so late in the day, even for us on the west coast, and played well into the evening. As much as we enjoyed having some pickleball on in the evening, we’d be curious to know what the numbers looked like because starting the final matches at 11:30 pm east coast time does not seem conducive to bringing eyeballs to MLP.
The Saturday and Sunday Night Pickleball matchups continue to be a quality product, but there seemed to be a lot more stretches of empty seats on centre court in Phoenix, even compared to Daytona. Butts in seats are not only helpful from an optics perspective, but it makes a huge difference to the energy on court for all of the players. Understanding that it was hot in Phoenix during the day, it would seem that optimizing scheduling to allow for the most butts in seats is simply better for the product overall.
1. “Sample Size” – The overriding theme for MLP 2025 continues to be the discrepancy between the bottom 8 and the top 8 teams in MLP. Coming into Daytona, the bottom 8 teams were 0-42 against the top 8 teams. A near impossible statistic to consider entering the season regardless of the expectations surrounding the lack of parity.
While MLP Daytona featured more upsets than we have seen at any MLP event so far this year, we leave Daytona with the bottom 8 teams having a 2-56 record against top 8 teams. The first 8 v. 8 upset was a real shocker with an asterisk. Christa Gecheva subbed in for an ill Meghan Dizon. Impressively, the Black Diamonds were able to push it to a Dreambreaker after losing both gender matches, which is incredibly difficult to do given how tough the ALW/Howells mixed team has been over the past year and a half. It was a super fun win from arguably the gutsiest team in all of MLP since the Connor Garnett trade in 2024.
The other upset of the weekend came at the hands of the Carolina Hogs, who bested the Texas Ranchers after also losing both gender matches. Another mind-boggling result considering Collin Johns and Kaitlyn Christian had to beat the #1 mixed team for the Ranchers, Christian Alshon and Etta Tuionetoa.
The title to this takeaway of “sample size” is a reference to the MLP Commissioner, Samin Odhwani’s, response to Matty Pickles’ post on X after the Ranchers loss to the Hogs:
MLP has drawn a lot of criticism this year for its lack of parity and it cannot be a comfortable position for the new Commissioner to deal with. Sample size is obviously an important consideration when drawing a conclusion in any facet of life, including professional sports. The thing is, Odhwani attempting to humorously make a point to the parity crowd based on the absence of a proper sample size is severely misguided.
42 matches coming into Daytona is not a small sample size. After the Ranchers loss, we did not see another 8 v. 8 upset for the rest of the weekend and the only other true upset we saw on the weekend was the LA Mad Drops over the St. Louis Shock. We now have a 58 match sample size of 8 v. 8 matchups, which is an objectively large data point. Over half of the season has been played by most teams.
In addition to the relatively large 58 match sample, it should also be noted that the scoring switch of side out games to 11 in 2025 should theoretically have created more volatility this season. Real Clear Stats has shared that the average number of rallies per game is 37 in 2025 compared to 46 in 2024. So, not only do we have a 58 match sample where there have only been two 8 v. 8 upsets, but the insanely small number of top half vs. bottom half upsets has occurred in a climate that should maximize the opportunity for upsets.
We aren’t going to be able to solve the parity question in 2025 but we sure as heck shouldn’t be deflecting the problem as being a sample size issue. Sample size is important, and it is evident that we have a large enough sample size in 2025 to conclude that parity is a huge problem.
We expect there are going to be more than two 8 v. 8 upsets over the course of the second half of the season, but that doesn’t mean this is an issue that MLP should not actively be working to improve drastically for 2026.
2. Ranchers Flaws – The Texas Ranchers were one of the steadiest upper tier teams in 2024, buoyed by one of the most reliable women’s doubles pairings in Tina Pisnik and Etta Tuionetoa. In 2025, they swapped out Quang Duong for Eric Oncins and started the year hot with their men serving big as well as creating chaos for opponents. We had the Ranchers as the #4 team in our pre-season power rankings even though we were skeptical of their ability to win a championship, in part due to the sub-par Dreambreaker capabilities of their women.
Texas has still been good this year, but they have been a disappointment relative to expectations. In Daytona, they lost to the lowly Carolina Hogs after taking both of the gender matchups and they also were taken down by the LA Mad Drops – losing both matches in Dreambreakers. Although the Dreambreaker concerns remain (they are 0-3 this year in Dreambreakers), the more concerning aspects for this team are its women and #1 mixed pairing. Pisnik/Tuionetoa are now 7-5 on the year. For the time being, they have settled on having Tuionetoa on the left but it remains an underlying problem for the Ranchers that there is any debate about which side their women should play.
On top of that, there have to be questions about the trajectory of both Tuionetoa and Pisnik. Both players were taken as rising talents in the 2024 draft and they lived up to that billing last year, especially Tina Pisnik as a later pick. Tuionetoa has battled health issues at times over the past couple of years and missed two matches in Daytona, the first of which was said to be a load management match off. Tuionetoa is also barely above .500 with Christian Alshon, who has been about as good as any male in mixed on the PPA Tour in 2025.
As rock solid as she is, Tina Pisnik is 44 years old and that comes with inevitable limitations that we see for any athlete getting into that age territory. It has been the biggest limiting factor on Pisnik’s upside as a professional pickleball player.
The Ranchers have not been shy to make a bold move. They dropped Pablo Tellez for Quang Duong in 2024. They drafted Noe Khlif and flipped him for Eric Oncins. The move with their #2 men paid off in 2024 and 2025. Oncins is a combined 19-9 on the season in men’s and mixed, which is very good. It’s hard to make a move that is a clear upgrade in MLP, but you have to think the Ranchers are trying to make something happen.
Ultimately, the Ranchers started the season right on the borderline of tier 1 status but it now seems most likely that this version of the Ranchers is nothing more than a tier 2 tough out.
3. Ben Johns in the Pig Pen – A lot of people were curious to see what version of Ben Johns we were going to get this weekend following the debacle that was MLP Columbus and the very light sentence, if you even want to call it that, he received from the UPA for his actions.
The weekend started off strong with an upset Dreambreaker and comeback win by the Hogs over the Ranchers, but the weekend was mostly downhill from there. The Hogs lost to the Shock, Mad Drops, Black Diamonds and 5’s in regulation. The Hogs found a win over the lowly Hard Eights early on Sunday, but it was another sub-par weekend in the pig pen for Ben and the Hogs.
It was a mixed bag this weekend from Ben and, in some ways, it was the worst version of Ben. He tantalized the fans with high level stretches of play during the weekend and showing he is still the best to ever step on a pickleball court to date. Unfortunately, there was more bad than good. On top of never really looking like he was ever having a good time or wanted to be playing MLP, we got to see partial Zombie Ben. The one that is taking 70-80% court but only giving 70-80% effort. It’s enough effort that you can’t say he isn’t trying, but it’s also clear he is not giving it his all.
That is the tough part of this whole discussion. No one can force Ben to play as hard as Anna Leigh Waters does all the time. What we saw from Ben this weekend is that he would come out early in games playing his hardest, only to be discouraged by the situation and turn up the everything happens to Eeyore mentality part way through a game.
The match against the 5’s was a prime example of Ben trying hard enough that he can’t be faulted while still bringing his sad boy energy for all to witness. After a men’s win over Howells/Navratil to tie the score up 1-1, Ben and Tammy Emmrich got pickled by Navratil/Dizon 11-0. A borderline shocking scoreline for a 5’s mixed team that has had trouble finding consistency in 2025. It is unclear if Ben’s heart was ever in that game but it is very clear that after going down about 4 or 5 nothing, Ben had no desire to be there anymore.
On the one hand, you can understand Ben’s frustration with having to play on this sorry excuse for a roster that Tom Dundon has put around him. It’s not 2022 anymore and Ben cannot win with a player like Tammy Emmrich playing 80 to 90 percent of the court.
Conversely, it remains pathetic that Ben can’t muster up some more effort, energy and team camaraderie to at least give his team a chance out there. As big as the disparity in level as there is between Ben and Tammy Emmrich, you’d think he could find in him a little encouragement and a paddle tap in between points. There is no way the Hogs can be getting the most out of Tammy Emmrich when Ben is sulking around the court after a every lost point by himself looking like a kid who didn’t get a toy with his Happy Meal.
It looks like we’re going to end up getting a version of Ben Johns for the rest of the year that is playing hard enough that no one can definitively conclude he is tanking, but we also aren’t going to be getting a highly motivated Ben out to prove all the haters wrong following all the backlash from MLP Columbus.
One thing to keep an eye on is that the Hogs chose not to protect Collin Johns and Tammy Emmrich during the 2nd waiver process that will be finalized next Monday. The only way teams can steal an unprotected 5th or 6th player for another team is by dropping a protected player so it appears as though Carolina may be contemplating a move somewhere.
4. Koller the Super Sub – AJ Koller has to be one of the most interesting players in all of pro pickleball. He somewhat came out of nowhere to become one of the more formidable players on the PPA Tour back in 2022. He was over-drafted in the 2nd round of the 2023 MLP Draft as he began experiencing a decline in his close to elite status as a pro. Focus and decision-making concerns eventually led to him going completely undrafted in the 2024 MLP draft.
Koller then spent time in 2024 subbing in for both the AZ Drive and LA Mad Drops and doing more than an admirable job. Towards the end of 2024, the St. Louis Shock announced Koller as their Director of Amateur Development – we are unsure whether Koller is still employed in that capacity by the Shock. Despite the increase in roster sizes for 2025, AJ Koller curiously went undrafted once again.
Fast forward to current times, AJ Koller has cemented himself as the super sub of all substitute players in MLP. In Orlando, he was back with the LA Mad Drops after Hunter Johnson was unable to suit up. This past weekend, in Daytona, AJ Koller played a number of matches as the on-site alternate in place of Zane Ford.
Koller did well for the Hustlers considering their roster consisted of Stephen Madonia (in for Donald Young), Lingwei Kong and Dominique Schaefer. Koller was somewhat competitive at times during the weekend, including finding a win against the New Jersey men.
After going undrafted in 2024, Koller appears to have locked in his focus level to a large degree and he continues to be a competitive substitute player because of his high-end hand speed. Considering the landscape of MLP in 2025 and the number of subs that have ended up playing this season, it would be a huge shock to us if someone doesn’t pick up AJ Koller for the rest of the season.
We would be a bit scared to put Koller into the recreational-esque environment that is the Challenger division, but he should be on a Premier roster somewhere as a Ryan Fitzpatrick style backup who can hold his own if called upon.
One team that could take a close look at Koller is the New Jersey 5’s. Craig Johnson, the 5’s current 3rd male, has not been travelling with the team to each event and, more importantly, isn’t going to hold up well in a Premier playoff match. The 2nd and final Waiver period for the season is on Monday, June 16th so this is the last chance for AJ Koller to be picked up by another team.
The other teams that could be looking to bolster their 3rd male spot are the Columbus Sliders and Brooklyn Pickleball Team. Columbus already had CJ Klinger miss an entire event and, surely, they do not want to risk having to put in Ross Whitaker for an entire event or playoff match after Roscoe Bellamy was stolen from them by the SoCal Hard Eights. Is Brooklyn willing to see what an extended stretch with Pat Smith looks like if Riley Newman has to miss multiple events with his groin injury?
Finally, the Flash brought in the Dallas resident, Ivan Jakovljevic, in the first waiver wire period but Koller would be an upgrade at that spot as well.
5. Is Utah the Cream of the Not’s? – The Black Diamonds had consecutive strong weekends in Phoenix and Daytona and they sit comfortably at 9th in the standings in points per match. Based on points per match alone, the Black Diamonds are statistically the cream of the have not bottom 8 teams in MLP. As noted above, Utah’s Daytona weekend featured an unexpected win in the most unexpected way against the Meghan Dizon-less New Jersey 5’s.
Something that we underrated going into the season for the Black Diamonds was the grit and grind of this roster. In 2025 when teams aren’t spending money, players are tanking and there are a handful of teams with sub-par starters, the fact that Utah tries as hard as any other team is a major factor in their success.
The popular quote that “hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard” is this Utah team in a nutshell. The only player on their team that we would consider in the range of a top-half MLP starter is Connor Garnett. That being said, Garnett and Tyler Loong are a feisty men’s doubles pairing that are a tough out for even some of the best teams at PPA events. Loong and Allyce Jones continue to be elite ball makers and that is annoying for opponents to deal with.
Genie Erokhina being just a capable 2nd woman who fights hard on every point once again makes this Utah team one that other MLP teams don’t want to see, which is similar to what we saw in 2024. The Black Diamonds play matches as if they are a championship contending team and the swap of Alix Truong for Allyce Jones may have cemented that even further.
Their primary team owner, Connor Pardoe, spent actual money on Mehvish Safdar in the draft but it has been Genie Erokhina who has seen 100% of the #2 female reps for Utah. It’s hard to believe that Utah will spend any more money and it has to be validating for Pardoe to be spending so little money on a team that is sitting in a play-in position right now. More importantly, there really isn’t anything this team can do to make themselves a real playoff contender so why bother wasting money at this point in the season?
There should be major props given to the entire Utah roster. When there’s nothing on the line and no extra money at play, they are still fighting tooth and nail for every point at every MLP event.
6. Full Strength Mad Drops – the Mad Drops finally had their full roster together at an entire event for the first time since 2023. They didn’t lose a match in Daytona, which included Dreambreaker wins over the Shock and the Ranchers. With one full event under their belt, the Mad Drops look to be everything that the Texas Ranchers wish they were.
They have a women’s doubles team with Parenteau/Jade Kawamoto that is 12-2 on the season. They have two somewhat volatile but powerful men’s doubles players who have enough upside to get men’s wins and will always bring the heat in mixed and Dreambreakers. It makes for a scary team when this team is firing on all cylinders.
The interesting thing about this team is that their women are performing better than they did in 2024, albeit with a softer Premier division in 2025. Nevertheless, their women have found wins against the women of each consensus top 3 teams in MLP. The concern with this roster was always with the upside, but if their women can find a way to get wins against higher end teams, all this team needs is to find one win to give themselves a very good chance at a match win.
Expectations should be tempered a bit as we have to wait and see whether this level of performance is sustainable from the Mad Drops women. However, given what we have seen from Texas, Columbus and Brooklyn (now without Riley Newman), we wouldn’t take any issue with anyone putting the Mad Drops at the top of that 2nd tier of MLP teams right now.
7. Michael Loyd Trade Reaction – Prior to the 2nd waiver period, the Ranchers and California Black Bears made a trade, swapping Michael Loyd for Rafa Hewett and cash. It is not a surprising move as there was a pretty good chance that Loyd was going to be stolen by another team, the Ranchers got ahead of the situation and recouped some cash in the process. They also replaced one hype man with another even hypier hype man on their bench. We do wonder if the Ranchers have another move in mind to solidify that male bench spot, but Rafa Hewett at least won’t be scared if he finds himself thrust into a match for the Ranchers at some point.
The move also makes sense for the Black Bears who might finally be done with the Rafa Hewett experience. Rafa went 1-9 in California’s first 5 matches of the season in Austin and he won’t be a competitive building block piece for 2026.
The other side of this trade is that it highlights what we feel is an unspoken piece of the expanded 2025 roster situation in MLP. While we have seen a good number of subs having to play matches for their team, it really isn’t ideal for bench players that they are not getting consistent MLP reps as the 3rd player on their respective teams. Reps for developing players has been a significant issue for PPA signed players and it’s not good for the Michael Loyd’s of the world that they are stuck on benches as the resident hype man or woman instead of grinding out matches on grandstand on a Challenger teams.
We have some players that really shouldn’t be playing on Challenger rosters like Sarah Ansboury, but then we have other players that need to be getting game reps like Helena Jansen.
There is definitely some utility to being part of a higher end Premier roster, but it’s probably much better for the Cason Campbell’s and Juan Benitez’s of the world to be on a Challenger team rather than sitting in Premier like Roscoe Bellamy or Yuta Funemizu. Obviously, MLP has a preference for all their players to be doing something rather than only commentating grandstand or attending events as an on-site alternate, but some of the better developing prospects are missing out on important, real life game reps.
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